A Comparative Study of Single Exponential Smoothing and Double Exponential Smoothing Methods for Forecasting Chicken Egg Prices in West Kalimantan Province

Abstract

This aims of this study is to compare the SES and Brown DES methods in forecasting chicken egg price in Kalimantan Barat Province. The data used are secondary data on chicken egg prices from January 2024 to July 2025, obtained from the National Center for Strategic Food Price Information (PIHPS). The performance of the methods was evaluated using the MAD and MAPE values. The results show that the SES method provides better forecasting performance compared to DES Brown, with MAD of 1831.03 and MAPE of 6.84%. The forecasted price of chicken eggs in August 2025 using the SES method is IDR 28,194. With a MAPE value of less than 10%, the SES method is categorized as highly accurate, making it a reliable reference for both consumers and the government in decision-making related to chicken egg prices in Kalimantan Barat Province.